(Almost) everyone really is moving to Texas and Florida.
From the onset of the pandemic through the middle of 2022, the 384 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in the U.S. grew by a net total of 1.66 million people. The metro areas in Texas and Florida accounted for 85% of that growth.
But the growth patterns in these two states were notably different.
In Texas, nearly all the population growth was centered on the state’s four large metro areas: Dallas, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio. These MSAs represented four of the country’s top eight metro areas for population growth over this time period (with Dallas and Houston holding the top two spots).
In Florida, growth was distributed across the state, with significant gains seen in its small and mid-size metro areas. Many of these areas saw significant percentage gains in their populations, and remarkably 7 of the top 10 percentage gainers nationally were in the Sunshine State.
Although every one of Florida’s 22 metro areas grew between 2020 and 2022, one barely did: the Miami MSA, the state’s largest metro area, saw a net gain of just 6,400 people, or 0.1%. Housing affordability issues have likely played a part in this, as the Miami metro ranks last in our analysis of rent levels relative to incomes (the area’s median rent requires the highest share of median income of any medium to large MSA).
Our firm’s work in Florida and Texas has grown significantly, as many of our builder and developer clients (and their capital partners) have capitalized on these growth trends. With multifamily supply catching up to the high levels of demand in some of these markets, we’re increasingly being asked to identify the next markets for opportunities. We’ll highlight some of these markets in future posts.
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